2020 is over.
Let that just sink in for a moment. While 2021 will still undoubtedly have its challenges, here’s to hoping that it won’t be as bad as last year.
I posted my 2020 Cincinnati Beer in Review in December, and January is about looking ahead with predictions.
I’m definitely not a craft beer insider, but I love looking at trends both locally and on a national scale. Here’s what I think we might see happen this year.
5 – Braxton releases an NA beer
Non-alcoholic beer is my prediction for the biggest new trend of 2021, especially after looking at some of the numbers in preparation for the first Beers and Beards Podcast episode of the year where I tried an NA IPA from Connecticut’s Athletic Brewing. NA beer sales were up 38% in 2020 over the summer versus the same months from 2019, and that trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
Just like we’ve seen trends develop quickly in craft beer with varying degrees of staying power, I think the next trend we’ll see – or continue to see – is folks looking for a way to still enjoy beer without the high alcohol and caloric content.
And the local brewery that has jumped on just about every trend so far is Covington’s Braxton Brewing Company. From New England IPAs to seltzer to low-cal IPAs, Braxton has been at the forefront of the consumer demands.
And a big part of the reason why is because they may just be the best local brewery at using data to help drive decisions. Which is no surprise because COO/founding father Greg Rouse spent decades working with data at dunnhumby and 84.51 for Kroger before jumping over the Braxton full-time alongside his sons Jake (CEO) and Evan (brewer).
Braxton may not be the only local brewery to try their hand at a non-alcoholic offering, but if anyone does it this year, I have a good feeling it will be them.
4 – At least a few more closures
Cincinnati breweries fared surprisingly well all things considered in 2020, navigating the pandemic in a myriad of ways, from offering home delivery, online ordering, shipping, and plenty of outdoor seating at taprooms. We saw the closure of Rock Bottom, 3 Points (now Braxton Cincinnati), Christian Moerlein (taproom) and Woodburn was purchased after closing.
Unfortunately I could see the closure of at least a few more breweries, especially because the winter months are looking to be extremely difficult times for local businesses. We’ve already seen BrewDog close their Pendleton taproom indefinitely, and other local breweries might not have the ability to only close temporarily.
3 – One of our breweries opens up in another city
Bad Tom Smith and Taft’s already have locations in different cities, and Braxton and Fretboard have multiple locations, with March First being the owner of Middletown’s FigLeaf and now East Walnut Hills’ Woodburn.
I’m guessing that one of our breweries will open a new location in another city in 2021. I’m not sure whether it will be something like Rhinegiest opening in Columbus or Indianapolis or Braxton opening somewhere like Louisville, but I have a good feeling that it will happen.
I don’t have any inside info, but it seems like a trend to see well-run midsize breweries opening locations outside of their home area. Athens’ Jackie O’s opened in Columbus, and their nearby friends Little Fish announced a planned location in Dayton, and Dayton’s Warped Wing opened in Springboro. This is a trend I see continuing in 2021, whether it be a brand new space or a takeover of a closed brewery.
2 – More packaging – lots more packaging
This one seems pretty obvious, especially because this Covid-19 thing doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon. More breweries will have to package their beer to stay relevant, but with a worldwide aluminum shortage expected over the next few years, many of them may have to start getting creative.
Could we see more bottles start to make a comeback? Definitely. Could we see more biodegradable and compostable packaging? I hope so. Will we see some sort of plastic packaging? Probably.
1 – Someone gets purchased
This is just a hunch, mainly because there are always rumors about breweries getting purchased. But sometimes when there’s smoke, there’s fire.
Rhinegeist has long been a rumored takeover target, mainly because of their built-in self-distribution and awesome branding. They’re Platform (which was purchased by AB-InBev), but with good beer. I don’t see them getting bought out, because they have been in the process of transferring ownership to their employees, and they wouldn’t have done something like that if they saw a big cash out for the owners coming soon.
MadTree is our second-biggest local brewery, but at less than a quarter the size of Rhinegeist. They have a huge beautiful taproom and great branding, but they also likely have a ton of debt and they don’t seem to be producing beer to their full capacity. To be a takeover target for one of the big players, they’d need to be punching above their weight, and right now they seem to be punching exactly at their weight.
The two possible targets I could see are Braxton and Taft’s. There have been rumors on local beer message boards about both of them, and both seem to be doing the absolute maximum they can with what they have. Braxton is truly an adult beverage company and not just a beer company, and I could see someone like Boston Beer Co./Samuel Adams snatching them up, because they have similar portfolios. They’ve spent a ton of money on marketing and advertising and it seems to have paid off. They’re always in the local news and they have one of the most recognizable local brands with four very different locations.
Taft’s has absolutely surprised me through the pandemic, and I like their targeted growth strategy through multiple channels. They have three locations and really good branding, and they also offer top-notch food service to go along with their ever-improving beer. They also do a good bit of contract brewing and that consistent business could make them a juicy candidate to be purchased.
A couple of other wild cards are Rivertown and Fretboard, but for very different reasons. Rivertown has absolutely struggled since moving to their much bigger location in Monroe, but they still have some really intriguing assets such as a huge brewing capacity and a big brewpub. Someone that needs to ramp up production quickly could snatch them up.
Fretboard I think right now is the most underrated brewery in Cincinnati. They won a medal at the Great American Beer Festival last year and their beer has just gone to a new level over the past 12 or so months. Everything I have from there is top-notch, and they brew classic styles as well or better than anyone in the city.